House Race Details (ME – MT)

MARYLAND

1st – Open Seat (R) – Perry Hall, Salisbury, and Severna Park.

The first Republican casualty of this election cycle was Wayne Gilchrest.  He lost a three-way primary that included State Senator EJ Pipkin, a fellow moderate, and State Senator Andy Harris, a conservative.  The three way race allowed for the moderate voters, considered Gilchrest’s hallmark, to be split amongst himself and Pipkin, sealing victory for Harris.  He was also assisted by the Club for Growth which spent heavily in attacking both Gilchrest and Pipkin.  Harris will now face Queens Anne’s County attorney Frank Kratovil, the Democratic nominee.  Demographically, the district is evenly split between both parties in voter registration.  The areas considered favorable to Republicans are Anne Arundel, Harford, and Queen Anne’s counties (suburban Baltimore).  The areas favoring Democrats are Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, and Worcester counties (Salisbury).  Harris resides in suburban Baltimore, whereas Kratovil resides in the Eastern Shore.  The registration split between the two regions is 43% residing in suburban Baltimore and 57% residing in the Eastern Shore.  An immediate worry for Harris should be his residence.  Voters in the Eastern Shore have shown a reluctance in supporting a candidate that does not reside amongst them (Gilchrest resided in the Eastern Shore and won every county, except Queen Anne’s, which he lost narrowly).  An additional problem for Harris is the incumbent he defeated.  Since being defeated, Gilchrest has not been shy in asserting his desire to campaign on Kratovil’s behalf.  Gilchrest has the ability to route moderate Republican and independent votes toward Kratovil.  Fundraising between the candidates has also been competitive (a sign that Gilchrest’s supporters have already begun to fill up Kratovil’s bank).  Support from Gilchrest, who is still popular amongst moderate Republicans, residing in the Eastern Shore, and money, are all considerable assets for Kratovil.  Whether Gilchrest’s oppossition to Harris translates into votes for Kratovil remains to be seen.  In the past, Republican moderates have openly voiced oppossition to conservatives (Roukema in NJ against Garrett and Schwarz in MI against Walberg), yet the conservative still prevailed each time.

Rating: Too Close to Call

6th – Bartlett (R) – Cumberland, Frederick, Hagerstown.

The only district in Maryland with a Republican voter registration advantage (48% R versus 36% D) is represented by Roscoe Bartlett.  He has consistently been re-elected with 60% or more of the vote, yet two years ago found himself with his toughest competition in ten years.  While the Democratic nominee was certainly competitive, the Republican tilt of the district made it almost impossible to defeat Bartlett.  This year former Frederick mayor Jennifer Dougherty has decided to challenge Bartlett.  Unlike 2006, Dougherty is not a well financed opponent.  Her positions on some social issues may make it difficult to connect with the more conservative areas of the district (particularly Carroll and Garrett counties).  The only noticeable negative for Bartlett may be his age (82), making him the third oldest member in the House.  While the district has been represented by a Democrat in the past, Beverly Byron being Bartlett’s predecessor, Dougherty cannot be considered a serious threat to Bartlett at this time.  It would take a series of mistakes on Bartlett’s part, similar to those undertaken by Kanjorski in Pennsylvania, before the race could even be rated as competitive.

Rating: Safe Republican

MICHIGAN

7th – Walberg (R) – Adrian, Battle Creek, Jackson.

As with Gilchrest’s primary defeat in Maryland, the Club for Growth can be credited with Tim Walberg’s victory over then incumbent Joe Schwarz in 2006.  Yet, even with his party’s nomination, it was a lack of party unity and hesitance on the part of moderates, Schwarz’s base, that provided Walberg with a close race against an underfunded Democratic opponent.  The DCCC had no idea that Walberg would have performed so poorly then, otherwise they would have made last minute expenditures.  However, this year the DCCC is fully prepared.  Mark Schauer, the State Senate Minority Leader is the (unofficial) Democratic nominee.  Walberg comes into the election facing two problems: high unemployment and high home foreclosure rates, neither of which he has been particularly attentive to.  The unemployment rate for the Battle Creek MSA is 7.5% and for the Jackson MSA it is 8.3%, both of which have increased dramatically since January.  This race will be centered around job creation, free trade, and high energy costs (none of which appear favorable to Walberg).  While incumbency is always considered an asset, in the case of Walberg it may actually be a liability.  The conservative stances he adopted, his votes in favor of Bush proposals (including free trade), and his lack of attention to the home foreclosure crisis at home, will all be showcased from now until the election.  Schauer has ran a very strong race, encouraging two former opponents to drop out thereby conserving funds, outraising Walberg, and offerring praise for Schwarz in the desire of winning over moderate Republicans and independents.  In the end it really comes down to whom may be considered the greatest liability, Governor Granholm (Schauer) or George Bush (Walberg).  I would confer to say the later.

Rating: Leans Democrat          

9th – Knollenberg (R) – Pontiac, Royal Oak, and Troy.

It was only two years ago that Joe Knollenberg faced the closest election of his tenure, capturing 54% of the vote.  This year Gary Peters, former Lottery Commissioner, has been selected to challenge Knollenberg.  This election presents many vulnerabilities to Knollenberg, the first and most obvious being Bush.  Like elsewhere in Michigan, his district is also suffering, yet in most instances at a much greater rate than other areas.  Homes foreclosures in Oakland County have reached an all time high.  Early estimates are that more than 10K homes will be foreclosed on this year, surpassing the 7,800 from last year.  Unemployment has also risen in this middle class district and yet, that too may continue to rise.  The probable closing of a General Motors plant in Pontiac only guarantees to exasperate the economic hardships here.  Understanding the situation he is facing, Knollenberg did vote for extension of unemployment benefits.  However, he also did vote for what many here consider to be the root of the problem: free trade.  One vote which may come back to haunt him is the Central American Free Trade Agreement, a bill which passed by one vote.  The most effective manner in disengaging Knollenberg would be to link him with Bush’s failed policies, after all, he did support most of them.  Another disadvantage for him is the changing voter patterns of once reliable Oakland County.  Once seen as a Republican base, Oakland County has gradually begun to tread toward Democrats, joining other suburban counties in the Northeast and Midwest that have reversed from Republican to Democrat dominance (Westchester County, NY and Montgomery County, PA are other prime examples).  Peters fundraising has been competitive, yet Knollenberg has twice the cash on hand.  If previous races are an indicator, Knollenberg’s margin of victory went from 58% in 2004 against a weak opponent to 54% in 2006 against a fairly competitive opponent.  It is highly likely that Peters will be Knollenberg’s strongest opponent ever.  The economic hardships of Oakland County, the increase in Democratic voter registration, and Knollenberg’s past performances all signify that this is a race that is working against him, rather than in his favor.

Rating: Too Close to Call    

13th – Kilpatrick (D) – Detroit.

In most circumstances, Carolyn Cheeks-Kilpatrick would be considered safe.  However, her problem is one beyond her control: her son.  As mayor of Detroit, Kwame Kilpatrick, has been caught up in one scandal after another.  Rather than discipline or scold her son publicly, Kilpatrick has instead scolded those that have criticized her son.  Her response toward her son’s behavior or lack of appropriate response has drawn criticism, especially after Detroit taxpayers have been left paying millions following the actions of her “failed” son.  As a result of her inaction towards the matter Kilpatrick finds herself in a three-way primary.  State Representative Mary Waters, considered the most serious threat, and State Senator Martha Scott, have decided to force a primary.  Kilpatrick is taking the threat that the primary poses seriously and for good reason.  She herself was elected by defeating a fellow Democratic incumbent in a contentious primary.  The lessons of that primary are surely with Kilpatrick now.  She also has funding, unlike both of her opponents.  Unlike a primary with just one opponent, the three-way primary guarantees that votes against Kilpatrick would be split between Waters and Scott.  The later of whom is merely seen as a placement candidate meant to help Kilpatrick, rather than hurt her.  In the end there is no denying that her son is a liability, yet the nature of the primary, the lack of funding by both opponents, and Kilpatrick’s past experience versus an incumbent, makes her well prepared in surviving this challenge.

Rating: Safe Democrat  

MINNESOTA

1st – Walz (D) – Mankato, Rochester, and Worthington.

The defeat of Gil Gutknecht by Tim Walz two years ago was a surprise upset that very few could have anticipated.  In fact, Gutknecht seemed to be doing everything right, including voting against the Central America Free Trade Agreement, alleging that it unfairly impacted sugar beet growers, a major industry in the district.  Where did Gutknecht go wrong?  He failed to realize that a district which gave Kerry 48% of the vote two years earlier was moving more toward Democrats and away from Republicans.  The strong Democratic areas can be described as Albert Lea, Mankato, and Winona.  The rural counties surrounding Worthington are considered strong Republican territory.  Rochester, the district’s major city, only leads Republican slightly.  Gutknecht’s loss can be attributed to his underperformance in Republican areas and even losing Worthington, long considered a Republican stronghold.  The Republican nominee to challenge Walz this year has yet to be determined, since State Senator Dick Day, seen as an early favorite (yet absolutely poor fundraiser), is being challenged by physician Brian Davis, the NRCC’s preferred candidate (mostly due to his ability to self-fund).  The primary between both candidates guarantees to be an intense battle.  One certainty is that post-primary the Republican nominee will be financially broke and politically bruised.  Walz has several advantages on his side, starting with three important committee assignments, all of which are seen being beneficial to the district (Agriculture, Transportation, and Veterans Affairs).  The divisive Republican primary and Walz’s strong fundraising will be assets heading into the election.  Whoever wins the Republican nomination will have very little funds to utilize in the election, forcing a broke NRCC to abandon a “promising” race.

Rating: Likely Democrat  

2nd – Kline (R) – Apple Valley, Eagan, and Faribault.

In politics, it is very rare for a candidate to be nominated by their party and lose twice, only to get re-nominated a third time and actually win.  This is the case of John Kline, losing twice to Bill Luther, an incumbent Democrat, and then finally beating him on the third try.  Since 2003, when he first assumed office, Kline has been a reliable vote for conservatives, even though the state as a whole is considered liberal.  However, Kline represents suburbs south of the Twin Cities, which continue to remain conservative in most aspects.  The most Republican areas of the district are communities in Carver and Scott counties.  Rice County (Faribault and Northfield) is the only reliable Democratic area.  The remaining four counties are evenly split amongst both parties, yet the current trend is heading toward Democrats.  This reason alone may explain why Kline has never garnered more than 56% of the vote in his last two elections.  His opponent in 2004 had stronger financing than his 2006 opponent, yet they both finished with the same margin of victory.  While the district is changing and becoming less conservative, Kline has not.  The Democratic nominee to challenge Kline this year is Stephen Sarvi.  The candidate brings impressive credentials to the race, both him and Kline have military backgrounds, yet Salvi lacks in fundraising.  The total he has raised is far less than both the 2004 and 2006 challengers.  The district could favor either presidential candidate since it is literally split between both parties, yet Salvi upsetting Kline here is a heavy task.  Kline’s cash on hand and Salvi’s poor fundraising are sufficient reasoning to make what could have been a competitive race far less competitive.

Rating: Republican Favored

3rd – Open Seat (R) – Bloomington, Coon Rapids, and Plymouth.

The retirement of Jim Ramstad, one of a dozen moderates Republicans that have opted to retire, is further proof that the Republican Party is gradually moving further to the right.  Like the district currently represented by Walz, this district is similarly viewed as favoring neither party.  However, Ramstad’s district is far more ethnically diverse and less conservative.  Cities seen favorable to Democrats are Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, and Minnetonka.  Cities favorable to Republicans are Eden Prairie, Maple Grove, and Plymouth.  The only city evenly split between both parties is Edina.  Democrats have nominated Ashwin Madia, an Iraq War veteran.  Republicans have nominated State Representative Erik Paulsen.  Both candidates have been competitive in fundraising, yet Paulsen has raised slightly more.  This will definately be one of the best races to watch for two reasons: Madia is a veteran and if Paulsen attacks him for his oppossition to the war in Iraq, then it could lead to independents (also viewed as oppossing the war in Iraq) being alienated from Paulsen.  Secondly, Paulsen has a legislative record, best described as conservative by most standards.  He has represented a conservative leaning area in the House, yet the district as a whole is moderate.  Furthemore, he was majority leader prior to Democrats retaking control, hardly a job that conservatives would entrust to a moderate.  Democrats will definately ensure that Paulsen’s conservative legislative record is made public as he undertakes his sudden transformation into a moderate.  The deciding group here will be independents, those that supported Kerry over Bush, yet were also comfortable in retaining Ramstad.  While the district should be favorable to Madia, he will have to begin dissecting Paulsen’s conservative record and put Paulsen on the defensive fairly quickly.  How effective he is will determine who prevails in the end.

Rating: Too Close to Call    

6th – Bachmann (R) – Blaine, Saint Cloud, and Woodbury.

One of the most radical and divisive members of Congress is Michele Bachmann, a social conservative.  This is the most Republican district statewide.  In 2006, the competitive race between Bachmann and Wetterling could be attributed to heavy spending by both parties and voter familiarity with Wetterling, the Democratic nominee in 2004.  In the end, Bachmann defeated Wetterling by 6%, a sign that voters saw Wetterling as too liberal, even though they were hardly sold on Bachmann.  This year the Democratic nominee is Elwyn Tinklenberg, former mayor of Blaine and Transportation Commissioner under Gov. Ventura.  Assisting Tinklenberg in defeating Bachmann is the Independence Party, which decided to nominate him as their candidate in this race.  In the past two elections the independent candidate took 8% of the vote, a difference which quite possibly could have produced a narrow Wetterling victory.  While he has already started running radio ads in the district, Tinklenberg can come off as a little boring, almost as if you’re listening to a narrator.  Bachmann’s social conservatism will certainly alienate independents and moderate Republicans, therefore Tinklenberg, being more of a moderate Democrat, is a much better fit for this race than Wetterling.  Fundraising for Tinklenberg has been a huge weakness.  Bachmann’s  total raised is almost four times as much as that raised by Tinklenberg.  However, if the DCCC see’s a race developing, then party expenditures could compensate for the difference.  Appealing to moderate Republicans and independents is an asset for Tinklenberg, yet without funds, it may be a heavy task to achieve.

Rating: Likely Republican

MISSISSIPPI

1st – Childers (D) – Columbus, Southaven, and Tupelo.

After being appointed to the US Senate, Roger Wicker left open what many considered a safe Republican seat.  While Wicker served the district for twelve years, preceeding him was more than 120 years of Democratic representation.  While many view Mississippi as a Republican state, the fact is that residents prefer Democrats on the local and state level, including when it comes to representation in Congress.  This could certainly explain why Travis Childers, a Democrat, was able to upset an equally financed Republican.  Childers will once again face this same opponent, Southaven mayor Greg Davis.  Childers, being the incumbent, has the advantage and many assets assisting him once again.  The district is more than 25% African-American.  Huge turnout by African-Americans, as was demonstrated throughout the special election, will benefit Childers greatly.  A committee assignment on the Agriculture Committee has also allowed Childers to bring funding into this rural district.  While neither candidate has much cash on hand, Davis’s lack of fundraising for a non-incumbent, places him at a greater disadvantage.  The DCCC will spend to defend Childers seat, yet if the NRCC feels that Davis is weaker and not competitive, then it may consider abandoning the race and assisting more competitive candidates.  It may be fair to say that Davis was damaged greatly following his nasty primary with former Tupelo mayor Glenn McCullough.  The scars followed Davis into his race with Childers and only took what most saw as a very close race and made it almost a 7.5% margin of victory for Childers.  In the very little time he has spent in office, Childers has compiled a conservative record.  Therefore, it will be difficult for Davis to attack Childers on his record (Childers is even on the record favoring oil drilling).  Additionally, attempts to link Childers to Obama, as was done in the special election, are guaranteed to have a negative effect for Davis (it only spurned African-American voters to come out in force for Childers).  In the end Davis is literally trapped, whichever way he decides to pursue his campaign.

Rating: Leans Democrat    

MISSOURI

6th – Graves (R) – Chillicothe, Maryville, and North Kansas City.

The last competitive race that Sam Graves had was in 2000, narrowly defeating the son of Pat Danner, his predecessor.  The district is best described as being moderate to conservative.  Moderate areas include the counties bordering Kansas City.  Conservative areas include rural counties, which include the cities of Chillicothe and Maryville.  Kay Barnes, former mayor of Kansas City, is the Democratic nominee.  Sensing the threat early, Graves has begun airing ads classifying her as a liberal with “San Francisco values,” favoring gay marriage and amnesty.  The ad is an attempt to alienate Barnes from moderates in the Kansas City suburbs.  While a majority of the district is rural, a majority of the voters are moderates.  In a district that includes twenty-six counties, 70% of the voters reside in just five (Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Jackson, and Platte).  In 2004, Kerry won 43% of the districtwide vote, whereas in 2006, Senator McCaskill won 51% of the vote.  Kerry was seen as too liberal, therefore he not only lost the district, but every county within the district (only part, not all of Jackson County is included in the district).  In contrast, McCaskill, viewed as a moderate candidate, lost the rural conservative counties, yet won comfortably in the five vital counties of Kansas City.  In order to succeed here, Barnes will need to adopt a similar strategy.  Both candidates have raised an equal amount of funds for this race, yet individual donations for Barnes far exceed those raised by Graves.  This race promises to be very aggressive, with much of the attacks coming from Graves.  He will base this race on two things: social issues (immigration and gay marriage) and energy.  He will try to link Barnes with Pelosi and Obama as much as he can (McCain will win this district).  Barnes will respond equally by linking Graves to Bush’s failed policies.  However, she will concentrate more on the economy, war in Iraq, and linking Graves to Big Oil (he has certainly received a lot from oil companies).  Graves will call on McCain to visit the district (however, it may make the immigration argument a little weak in the process), and Barnes will rely on McCaskill.  Graves may be taking a serious risk with the energy issue.  If energy prices continue to drop, without any drilling, then the issue becomes less relevant to voters, yet the PAC donations received while prices were high still remains on the radar.  Graves television attacks against Barnes, in attempts to brand her a liberal, could also backfire (Nancy Johnson will be able to inform him firsthand).  If he overplays the issue then moderates may defect sensing him ignoring important issues.  A clear advantage for Barnes is that she seems to be running a better campaign, concentrating on the important issues at hand.  She has also been competitive against Graves in the fundraising arena (and this doesn’t even include the millions that the DCCC will pour into the race).  Barnes also has McCaskill, who has the proven ability to win not only in liberal cities, but also the moderate suburbs which outline them.  Further hurting Graves is a libertarian candidate, which is likely to take at least 1.5% of the vote.  A fight until the end is the best way to describe what is going to transform.

Rating: Too Close to Call

9th – Open Seat (R) – Columbia, Kirksville, and Washington.

The decision by Kenny Hulshof to abandon his seat and run for Governor has created a contest that few could have anticipated.  Five Republicans, four Democrats, and a libertarian are all in the running to win this seat.  The two most competitive Republicans are former State Representative Blaine Luetkemeyer and State Representative Bob Onder.  The two most competitive Democrats are State Representative Judy Baker and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw.  Luetkemeyer and Onder share much in common.  They are both social issue candidates (abortion, guns, gay marriage, and illegal immigration).  Neither seem well versed (or hardly interested) in the economy.  They also have self-funded a majority of their campaign (70% for Luetkemeyer and 53% for Onder).  Realizing that Luetkemeyer’s money can prove detrimental in a crowded primary, Onder has already started attacking him (yet there is hardly any issue where they differentiate).  In the end, Onder is likely to win the primary.  The Democratic race features Baker, who is from Columbia, the major population center in the district.  Gaw hails from Moberly, a more rural area of the district.  Baker has raised almost twice as much as Gaw, yet all of his funds have been individual contributions.  Baker is appealing to liberals in Columbia, wheras Gaw is reaching out to more conservative Democrats.  Turnout will be the key in determing who wins the Democratic primary.  If Baker wins the primary she will have an uphill climb in appealing to voters outside of Boone County (Columbia).  In 2004, Bush and Kerry performed even in Boone County, yet Kerry lost every other county in the district.  In 2006, Senator McCaskill carried Boone and Pike counties, yet only carried 47% of the districtwide vote.  Half of the vote totals will come from four counties (Boone, Franklin, Saint Charles, and Warren).  Gaw has more appeal outside Boone County, since he is running as a conservative Democrat (publicly supporting oil drilling) and is a farmer, a strong asset in an agricultural district.  Interestingly, Huckabee carried a majority of the counties here, yet Romney carried two important counties (Boone and Saint Charles).  On the Democratic side, Clinton carried every count, except Boone.  McCain provides no assistance to any Republican nominee, neither does Obama for the Democrat (other than in Columbia).  Following the primary (August 5th) a better picture will show which party has the upper hand here.  Therefore, since no nominee has been selected, ratings are based on hypothetical match-ups.

Rating: Likely Republican (Onder vs. Baker)

Rating: Too Close to Call (Onder vs. Gaw)

Rating: Leans Republican (Luetkemeyer vs. Baker)

Rating: Leans Democrat (Luetkemeyer vs. Gaw)